Climate Change New Theory

New theory of Climate Change:

 

পরিবেশ বিপর্যয় ও জলবায়ু পরিবর্তনের কারণ হিসেবে এতদিন মূলত গ্রিনহাউজ প্রতিক্রিয়ার কারণে বৈশ্বিক উষ্ণায়নকেই দায়ী করা হতো। কিন্তু সম্প্রতি বিজ্ঞানীরা আরও ভয়াবহ পরিবেশ বিপর্যয়ের কারণ আবিষ্কার করেছেন। মানবসৃষ্ট কোনো কারণ নয়, এবার পৃথিবীর গাঠনিক ত্রুটির কারণেই সাম্প্রতিক প্রাকৃতিক দুর্যোগ সংঘটিত হচ্ছে এমন তত্ত্ব খাড়া করেছেন তারা.সম্প্রতি নাসার প্রকাশিত প্রতিবেদনে এমন তথ্যই জানা গেছে। খবর রুশ পত্রিকা প্রাভদা। বিজ্ঞানীরা বলছেন, পৃথিবীর চৌম্বক মেরুর ব্যাপক বিচ্যুতি এক দুর্বার শক্তি উত্পাদন করছে, যা ২০১১ সালের শুরুর দিকে পৃথিবীর বিভিন্ন অঞ্চলে ভয়াবহ ঝড়ের সৃষ্টি করে। পৃথিবীতে যে ধারাবাহিক ঝড় ইতোমধ্যে শুরু হয়ে গেছে তার পেছনে যথেষ্ট প্রমাণ রয়েছে। সর্বশেষ উত্তর আমেরিকায় যে ভয়াবহ তুষার ঝড় বয়ে গেল তাতে নতুন বরফ যুগের সূচনা হতে যাচ্ছে এমন আশঙ্কা জোরালো হচ্ছে।

২০১১ সালের শেষের দিকে যুক্তরাজ্যের ওপর দিয়ে বয়ে যাওয়া ঝড়ো হাওয়া, ক্রিসমাসের আগে যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের তুষার ঝড় ও ফেব্রুয়ারিতে আবারও ঝড়ের হানা, অস্ট্রেলিয়াতে স্মরণকালের সবচেয়ে বড় বন্যা এবং বন্যা দুর্গত এলাকায় আবার ৫-এর বেশি মাত্রার হারিকেন নতুন বরফ যুগের সূচনার বার্তা বহন করে বলে বিজ্ঞানীদের ধারণা। যুক্তরাষ্ট্রের সর্বশেষ ঝড়ে ক্ষতিগ্রস্ত হয়েছেন ১৫০ মিলিয়ন মানুষ। এর ভয়াবহতা ছড়িয়ে পড়ে প্রায় ২ হাজার বর্গকিলোমিটার এলাকাজুড়ে।

অস্ট্রেলিয়ায় অতিবৃষ্টিতে সৃষ্ট বন্যায় কুইন্সল্যান্ড এলাকার পানি এতটাই বেড়ে গিয়েছিল যে, রাস্তায় হাঙ্গর সাঁতার কাটতে দেখা গেছে। নিরূপায় কর্তৃপক্ষ স্বীকার করেছেন, কিছু অঞ্চলের পানি কোনোভাবেই নিষ্কাশন করা সম্ভব নয়। বন্যাকবলিত অঞ্চলটি হয়তো ছোটখাটো সাগরে রূপান্তরিত হবে এমন আশঙ্কাও উড়িয়ে দেয়া যাচ্ছে না। এর মধ্যে ঘূর্ণিঝড় ইয়াসি আঘাত হানে অস্ট্রেলিয়ায়। এর বাতাসের বেগ ছিল ঘণ্টায় ২০০ মাইল। যা ৫ মাত্রার হারিকেনের চেয়েও ২২ শতাংশ বেশি গতিসম্পন্ন। জলবায়ু গবেষকদের দাবি, পৃথিবীর চৌম্বক ক্ষেত্রের দ্রুত বিচ্যুতির দরুন অদূর ভবিষ্যতে এমন ঝড় বয়ে যাওয়ার সম্ভাবনা রয়েছে, যার বাতাসের গতিবেগ হবে ঘণ্টায় ৩০০ থেকে ৪০০ মাইল। গবেষণায় প্রাপ্ত তথ্য অনুযায়ী সূর্যের তড়িত্ চুম্বক ক্ষেত্র পৃথিবীর সঙ্গে যে প্রতিক্রিয়ার সৃষ্টি করছে তার প্রভাব শুধু পৃথিবীর চৌম্বক বলয় নয় এর অক্ষের বিচ্যুতি কোরের মধ্যকার গতিময়তা, সমুদ্র স্রোত এবং আবহাওয়ার ওপরও পড়ছে। এর ফলে পৃথিবীর চৌম্বক কেন্দ্র গত ১০ বছরে প্রতিবছর ৪০ মাইল করে পূর্বদিকে সরে যাচ্ছে। স্বাভাবিক অবস্থায় এর বিচ্যুতি হয় গড়ে ৫ মাইল। আরও ভীতিকর বিষয় হচ্ছে এ বিচ্যুতির হার বেড়েই চলছে। মার্কিন মহাকাশ গবেষণা সংস্থা নাসা তাদের এক গবেষণায় দেখায়, পৃথিবীর চৌম্বক ক্ষেত্রে বড় ধরনের একটি সুড়ঙ্গের সৃষ্টি হয়েছে। এর ফলে আয়নস্ফেয়ার এবং ট্রপোস্ফেয়ারে বায়ু প্রবাহ নেতিবাচকভাবে প্রভাবিত হচ্ছে। মার্কিন কেন্দ্রীয় সংস্থা এসওএএ একই রকম তথ্য প্রকাশ করেছে। উপরন্তু তাদের ধারণা ভবিষ্যতে ক্যালিফোর্নিয়ার বেশিরভাগ অংশ ঝড়ে উড়ে যাবে।

(source: amaderdeshonline)

Climate Change and its Calamities

Climate Change and its Calamities

Globalization and its negative outcome: The global climate has been changing as the world gets warmer largely due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from human activities. This fact is now widely accepted but there are still a few formidable sceptics around, who refuse to accept evidence of human causation of recent observed warnings. 

According to latest assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a dedicated international scientific body to review and assess the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide to understand climate change, and established by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20 century due to increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations, and that the warming of the climate system has been unequivocal.

 

About the warming of the planet, the IPCC finds that warming in the last 100 years has caused about a 0.74 degree Centigrade increase in global average temperature, which is up from 0.6 degree Centigrade increase in the 100 years prior to the Third Assessment Report. It observed that since 1961, the ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system, and average Arctic temperatures increased almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years. 

The changes in the atmosphere have been due to marked increase of emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide resulting in warming of the planet with infrequent cold days and nights, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent. They found that the twelve-year period, 1995-2006, ranked among the top 12 warmest years since 1850.

It noticed increased incidents of high intensity winds, increased droughts and heavy precipitation. It found that mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined, land-based ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have been lost and very likely contributed to sea level rise between 1993 and 2003, and that ocean warming caused seawater to expand, contributing to sea level rising on an average about 1.8 mm/year during the years 1961-2003 while, in 1993-2003, the sea level increased at an average rate of 3.1 mm/year.

Based on such and other factors, the Panel projected a model based future after analysing various climate models, and predicted that in the 21st century surface air warming for a low scenario would be around 1.8 degrees Centigrade, with a likely average of 1.1 to 2.9 degrees Centigrade, and for a high scenario, 4 degrees Centigrade with a likely range of 2.4 to 6.4 degrees Centigrade rise of temperature at a rate of 0.1 degree Centigrade per decade in first two decades, and rise of about 0.2 degree Centigrade for the next two. For sea level, it estimated rise of 18 to 59 cm, in low scenario, to 26 to 59 cm in a high scenario, resulting in increase in frequency of warm spells, heat waves, heavy rainfall, droughts, intensified tropical cyclones, extreme high tides etc. 

Climate change and developing countries  as like Bangladesh, Maldives, Srilanka etc Effects of climate change are all too visible in Bangladesh. According to one study, compared to present day temperature, temperature could increase to 2.4 degrees centigrade higher than the current level by 2100, causing hotter summer, and hot winters. The rainfall could increase to 10% at the same time, changing drastically usual rainfall patterns. The seawater rise would cause more havoc as it is estimated that by 2100 the level would increase by 88 cm from the current level, submerging vast tracts of land with seawater. Frequent and severe floods, frequent storms etc., have already become regular features and are likely to multiply, affecting lives of tens and thousands of people, who are mostly poor and vulnerable. 

What have human rights got to do with climate change? Human rights are universal basic rights and freedoms which all humans are entitled to, including civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights entailing such rights as right to life, liberty, freedom of expression, to worship, to own property, to be treated equally before the law, to family, to education, to culture, to health, to subsistence etc. These rights being universal and fundamental, states have obligation to prevent violations of these rights.

However, global warming has been threatening all human rights which are designed to prevent destruction of life, health, property, livelihood, culture, means of subsistence, residence, movement etc. The threats from climate change include death and danger from droughts, floods, heat, storms, rising oceans, impacts on agriculture and food production, loss of animals, various diseases, destruction of water supplies, and inability to live and sustain lives.

Forced displacements have already impacted strongly, and are likely to do so in future with the predicted rise of sea level and devastating storms, costing a huge portion of gross domestic product. In Asia and Pacific, according to the report of the Working Group on Climate Change titled "Up in the Smoke?" (2007), "human drama of climate change will largely be played out in Asia, where over 60% of the world's population, around 4 billion, lives."

To some extent, the relationship between the environment and human rights, and human well-being, has been recognised. According to Inter-American Commission of Human Rights, realisation of many human rights is necessarily related to and in some ways dependent upon one's physical environment. 

Climate change, The International Court of Justice (ICJ) also feels that damage to environment can impair and undermine all human rights. Protection of environment, according to the Advisory Council of Jurists of the Asia-Pacific Forum on National Human Rights Institutions, is a vital part of the contemporary human rights doctrine and a sine qua non for numerous human rights, such as right to health and the right to life.

Indeed, many rights recognised in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural rights, Convention against Torture, Convention on the Rights of the Child, are relevant to those people whose way of life comes under threat from climate change. States therefore have responsibilities under these instruments to take action to remedy the direct and indirect threats to these rights posed by climate change. These are positive obligations to protect individuals against the threats of climate change, regardless of the causes.

Climate change discourse and human rights: In international negotiations and even in IPCC reports, human rights hardly appear as an issue. These are overwhelmed by science and economics, but not by those who matter most, the people. In climate discussions in Bangladesh too, human rights are not mentioned. It appears, despite deep and complex interlinks, climate change discourses are silent on human rights. This has to change, and discussions in all earnest should begin to understand the full impact of climate change on human rights.

Climate change, Even though it involves some difficult rights issues that might be challenging, such as weak enforcement mechanisms under international laws, or extraterritorial responsibilities in that, ordinarily, the government concerned has the primary duty to act in case of violations of rights, but in the case of climate change, responsibility of impacts cannot be attributed to the government nearest to hand, but also to countries far away, and both public and private entities.

Therefore, what is most needed now is adoption of a "human rights based approach" to policy and legislative responses to climate change, based on international human rights norms and standards, and ensuring promotion and protection of human rights. Human rights standards should be minimum thresholds for mitigation and adaptation policies.

The Cancun climate change conference 2010

The Cancun climate change conference 2010 

Vulnerable countries probably some good news could finally be heard from Cancun, the Mexican tourist resort where the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or in short, UN climate change conference, was held between November 29 and December 11 to reach an international deal on cutting carbon emissions by the member countries. 

The COP is the highest body of the UNFCCC and comprises environment ministers from 193 countries. Since the first summit on Climate Change, known as Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, this is the 16th time that such conference was organised by ministers and other senior officials from these countries. But why are the nations committed to reduce the emission of the Green House Gases, (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4), nitrous oxide(N2O), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) as well as the chlorofluorocarbons [hydrofluorocarbons (HFC)and perfluorocarbons (PFC)] -- the gases to blame for Global Warming -- are taking so long to reach a consensus on the deal? 

It may be recalled here that on December 11 1997 ministers and other high-level officials from 160 countries reached an agreement in Kyoto of Japan on a legally binding Protocol under which 37 industrialised countries were to reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% from the 1991 level. The agreemen, termed Kyoto Protocol, came into force on February 16, 2005. 

Though the protocol set the target of lowering overall emissions of the six GHGs over a five-year period between 2008 and 2012, little progress could be made so far in achieving the set targets of collective carbon emissions. Rich countries, including Japan, which hosted the conference, and Russia showed their unwillingness to enter a second term of the protocol after 2012 at the Cancun climate change summit. At a stage, Canada also refused to renew the legally binding protocol.

The situation turned for the worse as United States backed out on the agreement to constitute a Green Fund. It insisted on progress on all the issues in the talks, including reducing de-forestation (Redd) and technology, and threatened to withhold support for the agreement unless conditions on verifying emissions reduction by emerging economies like China and India are met. 

Finally, after two hectic weeks of negotiations a modest deal could be reached, paving the way for the next round of talks (COP17) in South Africa in December next year to decide whether the already frayed Kyoto protocol could be extended further. However, the progress made at Cancun, though not ambitious, if only due to the sobering impact of last year's Copenhagen summit (COP15) that began with high hopes but ended in a whimper, did at least set the course for future climate talks. Not surprisingly, the chairman of the Cancun climate talks, Mexican foreign minister Patricia Espinosa, declared with a positive note that the deal has ushered in a new era of international cooperation on climate change. 

* The most important achievement is the agreement on creating the Green Climate Fund for the poorest and worst-affected countries to adapt to the harmful impacts of climate change. The wealthiest nations such as the European Union, Japan and the United States have pledged $100 billion a year from 2020 to the Green Climate Fund, with a rapid fund of $30 billion to start with,

* Next comes the new mechanism to transfer low carbon technology and expertise to poor countries,

* The Forest deal with provision of compensation for preserving tropical forests by countries that would avoid emissions from deforestation;

* The urge for deep cuts in carbon emissions so that the global temperature may not rise over 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) over the pre-industrial level. It also made a call to carry out a study on the possibility of limiting the rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius;

* To study new market mechanisms that would help developing nations to reduce carbon emissions and discuss the proposals at the next climate talks in South Africa;

* Ensuring that all major emitters including USA and China have their actions inspected;

* Arrange scientific review of the progress made after five years.

All the major powers, who are also the bigger emitters of GHGs -- the USA, the European Union, China, Japan and India -- except the least developed Bolivia extended their support for the deal. Bolivia's contention was that the agreement was not binding on the wealthiest nations to cut their emissions and as a result the global temperature might rise further, even above 4 degrees Celsius, thereby leading to near-death situation for more humans. Bolivia's resistance was finally overcome as it had no veto power to torpedo the climate deal. a

As noted earlier, the Cancun deal is a modest one in that it has no mechanism to measure how far the overall global omissions could be cut. What is more, there are a lot of loopholes in the agreement through which deep cuts in carbon emissions could be avoided. Ironically, such drastic cuts in the emission of climate altering gases were the sine qua non for containing global warming, as argued by scientists and it is also for this very purpose that the climate talks were initiated. 

What was agreed:

•  All countries promised to cut emissions, but no binding targets

•  Funding for countries which don’t cut down forests

•  Promise to provide up to $100 billion a year to help poor countries cope

•  A new UN climate fund to be run largely by developing countries

•  Easier transfer of low-carbon technology to poor countries

• A system for inspecting emissions from major polluters

•  Scientific review of progress after five years